Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., 6, 689-760, 2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed
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This discussion paper is under review for the journal Earth System Science Data (ESSD).
Global carbon budget 2013
C. Le Quéré1, G. P. Peters2, R. J. Andres3, R. M. Andrew2, T. Boden3, P. Ciais4, P. Friedlingstein5, R. A. Houghton6, G. Marland7, R. Moriarty1, S. Sitch8, P. Tans9, A. Arneth10, A. Arvanitis10, D. C. E. Bakker11, L. Bopp4, J. G. Canadell12, L. P. Chini13, S. C. Doney14, A. Harper15, I. Harris16, J. I. House17, A. K. Jain18, S. D. Jones1, E. Kato19, R. F. Keeling20, K. Klein Goldewijk21, A. Körtzinger22, C. Koven23, N. Lefèvre24, A. Omar25, T. Ono26, G.-H. Park27, B. Pfeil25,28, B. Poulter4, M. R. Raupach12, P. Regnier29, C. Rödenbeck30, S. Saito31, J. Schwinger25,28, J. Segschneider32, B. D. Stocker33, B. Tilbrook34, S. van Heuven35, N. Viovy4, R. Wanninkhof36, A. Wiltshire37, S. Zaehle30, and C. Yue4
1Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
2Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Norway
3Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
4Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France
5College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, UK
6Woods Hole Research Centre (WHRC), Falmouth, Massachusetts 02540, USA
7Research Institute for Environment, Energy, and Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina 28608, USA
8College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, EX4 4RJ, UK
9National Oceanic & Atmosphere Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA
10Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
11School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
12Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia
13Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
14Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
15College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, EX4 4RJ, UK
16Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
17Cabot Institute, Dept. of Geography, University of Bristol, Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK
18Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USA
19Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
20University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California 92093-0244, USA
21PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague/Bilthoven and Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
22GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Wischhofstr. 1–3, 24148 Kiel, Germany
23Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
24IRD LOCEAN, Paris, France
25Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
26Fisheries Research Agency, 2-3-3 Minato Mirai, Nishi-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 220-6115, Japan
27East Sea Research Institute, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology (KIOST), Uljin, 767-813, South Korea
28Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
29Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, CP160/02, Université Libre de Bruxelles, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
30Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
31Marine Division, Global Environment and Marine Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
32Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
33Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
34CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia
35Centre for Isotope Research, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
36NOAA/AOML, Miami, Florida, FL 33149, USA
37Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and assuming and ELUC of 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (based on 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm on average over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1–3.1%) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 550 ± 60 GtC for 1870–2013, 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (160 ± 55 GtC). This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

All data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_v1.1).

Citation: Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Andres, R. J., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Houghton, R. A., Marland, G., Moriarty, R., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Arvanitis, A., Bakker, D. C. E., Bopp, L., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L. P., Doney, S. C., Harper, A., Harris, I., House, J. I., Jain, A. K., Jones, S. D., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Körtzinger, A., Koven, C., Lefèvre, N., Omar, A., Ono, T., Park, G.-H., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Schwinger, J., Segschneider, J., Stocker, B. D., Tilbrook, B., van Heuven, S., Viovy, N., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A., Zaehle, S., and Yue, C.: Global carbon budget 2013, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., 6, 689-760, doi:10.5194/essdd-6-689-2013, 2013.
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