Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Science Data The Data Publishing Journal
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-123
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
13 Nov 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Science Data (ESSD).
Global Carbon Budget 2017
Corinne Le Quéré1, Robbie M. Andrew2, Pierre Friedlingstein3, Stephen Sitch4, Julia Pongratz5, Andrew C. Manning6, Jan Ivar Korsbakken2, Glen P. Peters2, Josep G. Canadell7, Robert B. Jackson8, Thomas A. Boden9, Pieter P. Tans10, Oliver D. Andrews1, Vivek K. Arora11, Dorothee C. E. Bakker6, Leticia Barbero12,13, Meike Becker14,15, Richard A. Betts16,4, Laurent Bopp17, Frédéric Chevallier18, Louise P. Chini19, Philippe Ciais18, Catherine E. Cosca20, Jessica Cross20, Kim Currie21, Thomas Gasser22, Ian Harris23, Judith Hauck24, Vanessa Haverd25, Richard A. Houghton26, Christopher W. Hunt27, George Hurtt19, Tatiana Ilyina5, Atul K. Jain28, Etsushi Kato29, Markus Kautz30, Ralph F. Keeling31, Kees Klein Goldewijk32, Arne Körtzinger33, Peter Landschützer5, Nathalie Lefèvre34, Andrew Lenton35,36, Sebastian Lienert37,38, Ivan Lima39, Danica Lombardozzi40, Nicolas Metzl34, Frank Millero41, Pedro M. S. Monteiro42, David R. Munro43, Julia E. M. S. Nabel5, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka44, Yukihiro Nojiri44, X. Antoni Padín45, Anna Peregon18, Benjamin Pfeil14,15, Denis Pierrot12,13, Benjamin Poulter46,47, Gregor Rehder48, Janet Reimer49, Christian Rödenbeck50, Jörg Schwinger51, Roland Séférian52, Ingunn Skjelvan51, Benjamin D. Stocker53, Hanqin Tian54, Bronte Tilbrook35,36, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx55, Guido R. van der Werf56, Steven van Heuven57, Nicolas Viovy18, Nicolas Vuichard18, Anthony P. Walker58, Andrew J. Watson4, Andrew J. Wiltshire16, Sönke Zaehle50, and Dan Zhu18 1Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
2CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
3College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
4College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
5Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
6Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
7Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
8Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
9Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
10National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
11Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
12Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
13National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL 33149, USA
14Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway
15Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5007 Bergen, Norway
16Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
17Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, Département de Géosciences, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 24 rue Lhomond, 75005 Paris, France
18Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France
19Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA
20Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
21National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Dunedin 9054, New Zealand
22International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
23NCAS-Climate, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
24Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Postfach 120161, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany
25CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
26Woods Hole Research Centre (WHRC), Falmouth, MA 02540, USA
27Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA
28Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USA
29Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
30Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/AtmosphericEnvironmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
31University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0244, USA
32PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague/Bilthoven and Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
33GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
34Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06), CNRS, IRD, MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL Laboratory, 75252 Paris, France
35CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, PO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
36Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
37Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
38Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
39Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
40National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Terrestrial Sciences Section, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
41Department of Ocean Sciences, RSMAS/MAC, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA
42Ocean Systems and Climate, CSIR-CHPC, Cape Town, 7700, South Africa
43Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA
44Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
45Instituto de Investigaciónes Mariñas (CSIC), Vigo 36208, Spain
46NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Science Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
47Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
48Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, 18119 Rostock, Germany
49School of Marine Science and Policy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USA
50Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
51Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5007 Bergen, Norway
52Centre National de Recherche Météorologique, Unite mixte de recherche 3589 Météo-France/CNRS, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31100 Toulouse, France
53CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193 Catalonia, Spain
54School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Ducan Drive, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
55Department of Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University & Research, PO Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
56Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
57Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen (ESRIG), University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
58Environmental Sciences Division & Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of our imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the higher fossil emissions and smaller SLAND for that year consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 % to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of Gross Domestic Product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. For 2017, initial data indicate an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration of around 5.3 GtC (2.5 ppm), attributed to a combination of increasing emissions and receding El Niño conditions. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016; 2015b; 2015a; 2014; 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017.

Citation: Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., Manning, A. C., Korsbakken, J. I., Peters, G. P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Boden, T. A., Tans, P. P., Andrews, O. D., Arora, V. K., Bakker, D. C. E., Barbero, L., Becker, M., Betts, R. A., Bopp, L., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Ciais, P., Cosca, C. E., Cross, J., Currie, K., Gasser, T., Harris, I., Hauck, J., Haverd, V., Houghton, R. A., Hunt, C. W., Hurtt, G., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Kautz, M., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Körtzinger, A., Landschützer, P., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A., Lienert, S., Lima, I., Lombardozzi, D., Metzl, N., Millero, F., Monteiro, P. M. S., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S.-I., Nojiri, Y., Padín, X. A., Peregon, A., Pfeil, B., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Reimer, J., Rödenbeck, C., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Skjelvan, I., Stocker, B. D., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., van der Werf, G. R., van Heuven, S., Viovy, N., Vuichard, N., Walker, A. P., Watson, A. J., Wiltshire, A. J., Zaehle, S., and Zhu, D.: Global Carbon Budget 2017, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-123, in review, 2017.
Corinne Le Quéré et al.
Corinne Le Quéré et al.

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Global Carbon Budget 2017
Global Carbon Budget 2017
https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017
Corinne Le Quéré et al.

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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major...
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