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Earth System Science Data The Data Publishing Journal
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-51
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
19 Jul 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of this manuscript was accepted for the journal Earth System Science Data (ESSD) and is expected to appear here in due course.
CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – Bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations
Abdelkader Mezghani1, Andreas Dobler1, Jan Erik Haugen1, Rasmus Eduard Benestad1, Kajsa Maria Parding1, Mikołaj Piniewski2,3, Ignacy Kardel2, and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz3 1Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. BOX 43 0313 Blindern, Norway
2Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland
3Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Abstract. The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections – Bias Corrected Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to 5 × 5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) assuming two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase constantly by 1 °C until 2021–2050 and by 2 °C until 2071–2100 assuming the RCP4.5, which is accelerating assuming the RCP8.5 scenario and can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071–2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 % to 10 % and by 8 % to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 °C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent exhibiting spatial variations which depends on the selected season, location, future horizon and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between −7 % and +40 %, expected to occur in summer assuming the RCP4.5 scenarios and in winter assuming the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively, at the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at​ ​http://dx.doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d.

Citation: Mezghani, A., Dobler, A., Haugen, J. E., Benestad, R. E., Parding, K. M., Piniewski, M., Kardel, I., and Kundzewicz, Z. W.: CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – Bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-51, in review, 2017.
Abdelkader Mezghani et al.
Abdelkader Mezghani et al.

Data sets

CHASE-PL Climate Projections: 5-km Gridded Daily Precipitation & Temperature Dataset (CPLCP-GDPT5)
A. Mezghani, A. Dobler, and J. E. Haugen
https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d
Abdelkader Mezghani et al.

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Short summary
Projected changes estimated from an ensemble of nine model simulations showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase constantly by 1 °C until 2021–2050 and by 2 °C until 2071–2100 assuming the RCP4.5, which is accelerating assuming the RCP8.5 scenario and can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071–2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 % to 10 % and by 8 % to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs.
Projected changes estimated from an ensemble of nine model simulations showed that annual means...
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